Probability of Precipitation Exceeding a Specified Threshold
During a Sequence of 6-Hour Forecast Periods


We estimate the probability of precipitation at any given latitude and longitude as the fraction of the ensemble forecasts for which precipitation exceeds the specified threshold for that location. Tests indicate that the ensemble has a tendency to be too wet for small amounts of precipitation, so probabilities of precipitation tend to be overestimated for small thresholds. On the other hand, probabilities of precipitation tend to be underestimated for large amounts of precipitation.


Threshold
Northeastern Pacific Basin
Continental United States
Northern Atlantic TC Basin
0.01 inch
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0.1 inch
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0.25 inch
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0.5 inch
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1.0 inch
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Threshold
South America
South and Equatorial Africa N. Polar Stereograph
0.01 inch
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0.1 inch
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0.25 inch
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0.5 inch
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1.0 inch
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Threshold
Europe West Asia
Northeast Asia
0.01 inch
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0.1 inch
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0.25 inch
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0.5 inch
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1.0 inch
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Threshold
Southeast Asia
Australia
S. Polar Stereograph
0.01 inch
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0.1 inch
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0.25 inch
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0.5 inch
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1.0 inch
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Department of Meteorology @ The Florida State University
Tallahassee, FL 32306 | (850) 644-1558